Navigating the twists and turns of the hard disk drive (HDD) industry's long journey is no small feat. Introduced by IBM in 1956, HDDs have withstood the test of time, outlasting various tech industry analysts attempting to map the revenue and sales volume of this mechanical storage segment. Recently, Tom Coughlin, President of Coughlin Associates and a seasoned storage analyst and consultant, joined forces with Tom Gardner, a colleague in the hard disk business, to unveil enlightening charts depicting the HDD industry's performance over its 67-year history up to the present day.
These charts, color-coded by Gardner to represent data from different analyst firms, offer the best estimates of HDD industry revenue to date. The linear chart exposes certain discrepancies in collating revenue across different analyst firms, while the logarithmic vertical scale chart provides a smoother and more predictable illustration of the revenue trend over time.
Both charts unequivocally indicate that the HDD industry hit its peak revenue in 2012. Coughlin points out an interesting anomaly—peak shipment volumes for HDDs were observed in 2010. So, what caused this disparity? Those with over 15 years of experience in PC DIY might recall the Thai floods in 2011, leading to HDD shortages and subsequently affecting supply and demand, thereby influencing pricing.
Another noteworthy observation by Coughlin is that despite the decline in HDD revenues and shipment volumes, "HDD prices have been generally increasing." He attributes this to the shift towards high-capacity devices as SSDs have displaced HDDs in consumer devices with lower storage capacity requirements.
As Gardner's charts vividly portray, the HDD industry is currently navigating a phase marked by rapid declines. In 2022, HDD total shipments reached 172 million units, generating $20.4 billion in revenue. Projections for 2023 suggest a further decline, with estimated unit shipments of around 127 million units and total revenues falling below $14 billion—a noticeable downturn.
However, there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon for the spinning rust. The outlook for 2024 appears optimistic for all types of storage device manufacturers. The anticipated AI boom is expected to drive increased demand for both NAND Flash and HDD storage. In the coming year, it is projected that the remaining HDD manufacturers will ship approximately 127 million units, translating to around 900 Exabytes of data capacity, with revenues just shy of $14 billion. While these figures closely resemble those of the previous year, the steep decline in the HDD industry may finally see a reprieve, at least for the time being.
Related Topic:
about microphones in the digital world?
I can spend hours exploring your site.
ReplyDeleteThe site radiates a welcoming and inclusive vibe.
ReplyDelete